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This article is part of the supplement: Abstracts from the 17th International Symposium on HIV and Emerging Infectious Diseases (ISHEID)

Open Access Poster presentation

Modelling HIV modes of transmission in Iran

Maryam Nasirian*, Ali-Akbar Haghdoost*, Fardad Doroudi, Mohammad Mehdi Gooya, Abbas Sedaghat and Eshagh Dortaj Rabbori

Author Affiliations

Kerman University of Medical Science, Kerman, Iran

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Retrovirology 2012, 9(Suppl 1):P121  doi:10.1186/1742-4690-9-S1-P121


The electronic version of this article is the complete one and can be found online at: http://www.retrovirology.com/content/9/S1/P121


Published:25 May 2012

© 2012 Nasirian et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Introduction

There is inadequate information on high-risk populations even though prevention programmes are the mainstay of the national response to the HIV epidemic in these populations. We used the mode of transmission (MOT) model to understand the sources of new HIV infections and use this information for programme planning.

Material and methods

We systematically searched published and grey literature to find the best values for the input parameters required by the MOT model. The data were discussed by a group of national experts before being fed into the MOT model. Using the Monte Carlo technique, we computed the 95-percent uncertainty level (UCL) for the outputs of the MOT.

Results

The MOT model estimates that 9136 new HIV infections will occur in Iran in 2010 (UCL 6831-11757). Fifty-six percent (UCL 47.7–61.6%) of new infections were among injecting drug users and 12 percent (UCL 9.5–15%) among their sexual partners. The major routes of direct and indirect HIV transmission in Iran are unsafe injection (68%) and sexual contact (34% heterosexual and 10% same-sex). If current coverage for safe injection among IDUs increased from 80 to 95 percent, the number of new HIV infections in this group would decrease by almost 75%.

Conclusion

IDUs remain the key population at highest risk of HIV infection in Iran, so programme coverage for IDUs and their spouses needs to be increased. And as the sexual transmission of HIV increasingly contributes to the pool of new infections, serious measures are required to reduce sexual transmission of HIV among the relevant key populations.